February 26th 2021
I keep hearing, "There won't be a crash this time! Institutional money changes everything!".
I don't buy it.
Every cycle has a narrative. Last cycle it was ICO's. This cycle it's institutional money and corporate treasuries. Next cycle it will be governments (or something bigger) ;)
But no matter who our big buyer is this cycle, it's still retail that drives the manic insanity at the end. Here's how it goes:
- Every 4 years the bitcoin halving kicks off a supply shock (which occurred in May 2020).
- The same demand for BTC fighting for half the normally available supply starts to drive up the price.
- Rising prices drive the media to start talking about Bitcoin again.
- Everyone says, "the halving cant explain this, it would have been priced in!" so we seek a new narrative.
- The "OMG why is this happening" media frenzy drives retail back to crypto.
- Buyers buy. Hodlers hodl. Eventually there are no more bitcoins available to buy on the exchanges.
- Price goes vertical until it reaches some monstrously large round number whales are willing to sell at ($1k in 2013, $20k in 2017, $250k in 2021...)
- Price "crashes" and everyone who bought late in the cycle panic sells.
- The no-coiners say, "See I told you so!". Media declares Bitcoin dead.
- Everyone forgets about Bitcoin until the next halving occurs and the cycle repeats.
If anything, institutional money may speed up the cycle and cause more mellow dips than the 2017 bull run - both of which we've seen happen already.
But I think there will still be a retail driven emotionally charged boom top greed fest at the end. People can't help themselves. And if you think professional investors will be tweeting 💎✋ memes and not selling into that strength, you're in for a surprise.
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift
We've Reached Basecamp 2
It's been almost 2 months since we posted this chart and we've now reached Basecamp 2. What is Basecamp 2 you ask? It's something I made up to describe this spot on the mountain we'll take a break and cool off for a bit.
Price doubled in less than a month. The 25% dip we're experiencing right now is healthy. In fact, dipping down to $40k wouldn't even be cause for alarm. My guess is we'll consolidate and build a solid foundation here around $50k. Based on the past cycles, Basecamp 2 becomes the floor after bitcoin "crashes" later this year. View The Chart.
Tweet of the Week
Two days ago while bitcoin price was "crashing" from $55k to $45k Michael Saylor bought another one billion dollarz worth of bitcoin. Now that's how you buy the dip.