“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes” - Mark Twain
When people ask what I think BTC will do next, I point to the 2017 halving cycle bull run as a guide. See the chart below or explore the fully interactive chart here. Here's what I notice from 2017:
- It took ~6 months from the time of the halving to the time it bounced off the previous ATH
- The first bounce off the 2013 ATH (All Time High) happened on Jan 5th 2017. Rebalancing gains during the first week of the year is common for deferring capital gains tax payments to the following year.
- There were 2 major bounces off the previous ATH of ~30% before smashing into new territory
- There were 3 major dips of ~30% after smashing the previous ATH on the way to $20k
- The first and last booms were ~250% and the middle booms were ~150%
- It took an entire year for this to play out
- Not on the chart but I remember it well, there was lots of "bitcoin is dead" and "China bans bitcoin" FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)
So what does this mean for 2021?
- Just like 2017, we recently bounced off the previous ATH ~6 months after the halving
- Prepare for a couple attempts to break the 2017 ATH (~$20k) before smashing through (we're currently witnessing the first)
- Prepare for a possible ~30% drop the first week of January 2021 (~$14k)
- Prepare for a rollercoaster year. Yes, an entire year. Be patient!
- Prepare for $200k-$300k BTC Q4 2021, possibly sooner (aligns nicely with PlanB's S2FX)
- Prepare for lots of FUD (STABLE Act & Self hosted wallet regulation are just the beginning)
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift
Chart of the week
Tweet of the Week
I wrote an entire newsletter about this tweet, then decided to just go with the chart. I'm only a Bitcoin Maximalist when it comes to investing in sound money. If you wanna invest in crypto infrastructure and crypto startups too, I'm all for it - just don't confuse it with investing in the future of money.