@JamesonEth thinks Bitcoin hitting an all time high pre halving invalidates the cycle, we’re breaking into price discovery this week and the top is coming a lot sooner than people expect. Let’s dive in.
Episode Links
- @JamesonEth on Twitter
- Gerbz Chart - Counting Down The Days
- Peter Brandt Chart - Bottom to Halving → Halving to Top
- Gerbz Tweet - Decelerating cycle growth
Show Notes
Gerbz: All right. So the other day we were chatting and I was throwing out my usual predictions, which is that, you know, we're going to have a new top or a new high here towards the end of 2024, and then the top of the end of 2025, you came back with something that blew my mind. Remind me what you said, what you were thinking about this cycle.
Jameson: I was basically saying that I do not believe in the four year cycle any longer. I'm under the impression that this is the end of the cycle that started back in 2018. So I'm essentially under the impression, here in the next few months, we're going to see the last impulsive move to the upside that's part of this fifth wave of the cycle that ultimately started back in 2018.
So I believe that Bitcoin is likely going to top sometime in 2024. And just because that's such a controversial take, so many people are against that idea and just completely dismiss it. That almost attracts me to it even more because I know the prevailing sentiment across Twitter across, you know, whatever everyone's thinking, is likely not going to be the actual outcome.
So just kind of all these things combined, after giving it some thought over time, I've kind of just landed on the idea that I think the cycle top is likely going to be in 2024. You know, all things considered, you know, elections, ETF approvals, legislation somewhat opening some leniency for crypto.
I mean, it could totally be the case that we have some crazy blow off top that goes into 2025, but I'm largely under the belief, under the impression that cycle tops in 2025. And, you know, alt coins could, the main alt season typically comes when Bitcoin tops out and liquidity starts to flow elsewhere. You know, majors to mid caps, low caps, whatever.
So alt coins could 100 percent continue to rally into 2025. You know, we could see some crazy alt explosions, but I think Bitcoin top is likely going to be in 2025. Or 2024, sorry. And I honestly think that. The next move to the upside on Bitcoin is going to happen here relatively soon. We've been consolidating under all time highs here for about two months, a little more than now.
Decent moves to the downside, bottom around $56K, flushed plenty of open interest out. Alot of leverage has been liquidated and we've been consolidating under previous all time highs around $69K for, like I said, around the past two months. We've had previous attempts to break through that, you know, $72K resistance here, $70K to $72K resistance here about four times now.
I feel like the market is almost conditioning people to just be ready to short that resistance again. And I think that, you know, FOMC meeting, we could get rate cuts. You know, elections coming up, ETFs in the pipeline, I don't think this is the place to be going short. I do not think this is where you should be bearish whatsoever.
Are We Still In the Previous Cycle?
Jameson: I mean, just looking at the chart you're showing on the screen, it looks like it wants to go higher. I mean, we've been touching that $72K level like four different times. Now, next time we touch it, I think there's a high likelihood price breaks right through it. Because, first of all, consolidation under resistance, as we all know, is bullish.
Second of all, every time a resistance level is touched, it gets weaker. I mean, what we're doing is right now consolidating under all time highs. We've been tapping the same resistance over and over, weakening its resistance. We have bullish news in the pipeline, SPY's at all time highs, Fed could be cutting rates. This is not the time to be bearish in my opinion.
I think this is going to go a lot higher, a lot quicker than most people think. I think we're kind of just in that parabolic stage of the cycle where things start moving quicker and more violently to the upside. I don't think that there's going to be as much time for people to get in as price starts to go up from here.
I think that, like I said, prices are gonna move very quickly, and steeper moves. They're gonna be more violent and quick. It's gonna leave a lot of people sidelined and ultimately then buying back in, so it's just gonna drive the price up higher. I mean you've seen, like the ETF inflows we've had, record inflows from all these ETFs.
I mean, hundred million dollar days on Blackrock ETF alone. I mean, in my opinion, there's no reason to be bearish right now. I think a lot of the stuff I'm seeing on Twitter is just FUD, people are either sidelined, they don't have good entries, they're holding the wrong coins that aren't moving, and this ultimately leads to them developing a bearish thesis.
Gerbz: So you think people are bearish right now? I don't think people are bearish necessarily.
Jameson: I mean, there's one specific individual I've been seeing on Twitter, who's calling for $44K right now. He has like over 100,000 followers right now, and he's shorting with 8 figure size, calling for $44K. So some people, in that respect, I would say are bearish. And I agree with you, not necessarily bearish as in, you know, it's over. But I have seen some people calling for cycle top to be in.
I have seen people saying we're going to be consolidating throughout the summer for another two months before we go higher, because summer is historically a slow time. And I mean, granted, we're probably on somewhat different crypto Twitter timelines, so we're not seeing the exact same feed, same perspective, same people's opinions.
I have seen a few people calling for the top to be in, which I think is absolutely ridiculous. I have seen people that, you know, think we're going to retap or take the liquidity at $56K lows, for example, before going higher.
I disagree with all those ideas. Anyone who says that, you know, "Oh, we have to consolidate and shop around during the summer because historically that's what we've done. Summer's always a slow period of time. Because it always has been, that's, what's going to continue to happen." I disagree with that because when you think about the halving narrative, that idea was invalidated because an all time high coming before the halving, making me think that everything is essentially sped up.
We're at the end of this cycle that started back in 2018. There's no need for summer consolidation and shop if everything is sped up and happening before people think anyway. Like, I don't think top is going to be in 2025. Therefore, I don't think there's a need for us to shop around and wait for months on end in summer.
I think that this next impulsive move on Bitcoin is going to come here, honestly, in the next two weeks, I would say...
Gerbz: Uh huh. Next two weeks, so we're, early June right now, so you think, you're essentially, you think we're gonna have a little blow off top basically, here before the cycle's even really getting going.
Yeah, you're ready for a blow off top. I mean, all right, let me summarize a second here because I think some of the things you said are super interesting. And like, my gut reaction to what you initially told me was also to reject it. But instead I was like, no, let's get on here and let's talk about this because I think it's really interesting.
The thing that blew my mind the most was when you said, you think we're still like, in the previous cycle. You think we're still like finishing that previous cycle. I thought that was like, that's the part that like really kind of shocked me a little bit. I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa. Like it's been, 2021 was the top. What is it, 2024?
This was like, man, ancient history, the last cycle. It's so far in my rear view that I couldn't, I never would have imagined anyone thinking we're still here. still in it. That kind of rocked me a little bit, and that's why I was like, "Oh, we got to check this out and talk about this."
I think what I want to do too is, I want to review kind of like, the classic four year cycle predictions. The classic theory, right? For everyone that's listening and watching. Because I think that's kind of what you're saying is over, is ended. And that there's a new paradigm here with what's going on.
Maybe driven by the ETF. And definitely what you're saying, especially because we topped out before the fourth halving, we had a new, we set a new all time high. So let me review the previous cycle just for a sec.
Classic Four-Year Cycle Predictions
Gerbz: What I've got here is this was back in like September of 2023. So September of last year, I kind of just doodled on the chart.
I just mapped how, like all the different timeframes that I could find, relative to the cycle. So what you're seeing here is back in the 2013 cycle from the top to the bottom took 413 days. And then, from the bottom to the new high took 770. And then, from the new high to the all time high was 294 days. And this whole section here, this is what I call Boom 2.
And then Boom 3 starts over here. This is where we go from the top to the bottom was almost a year to the day, and then from the bottom to a new high was 700 days. And then, new high to the top was 330.
This is the four year cycle, between each halving is exactly four years, between each of these orange lines.
what I did is I just averaged some of these to come up with, if things go the same way as the previous two cycles, which both were very similar, what are we looking at here?
From this bottom of this bear market we just went through, which I think is now over and we're in a bull market again. But from the bottom of that, to a new high should be about 107 days. That puts us in December of this year. And so, that's where I thought, you know, we shouldn't have broken $69K until the end of this year, which I know we've already done. So that is a bit invalidated, but we can talk about that.
And then the next prediction from that would be, okay, well, when's the top? Well, the top would be 49 bars, which I don't know why it calculates in bars here. I think it's each bar is a week, I'm pretty sure. But that puts us in September or October of 2025, which would be the very top.
And so this is like the classic four year cycle, you know, theory that most, what you're saying and most people on Twitter kind of like, I don't know, are waiting around for this to happen. And I know I am in a lot of ways. And yeah, I love that you are not waiting and you think, you're maybe a little impatient in my opinion, but you're ready to go.
Jameson: Ha ha.
Gerbz: And so what I'll, one more thing about this too. Is when I kind of made this, a few months later this guy, Peter Brandt, he was like, he's a very classic chart guy. A lot of people follow him. He has a massive follow on Twitter. He came up with a very similar prediction as me and he actually reached it in a different, he measured in a different way.
The way he measured was actually, and he wrote this paper you can, I'll put it in the show notes, this paper that he wrote about how he came to when the top could be. And he uses the time from the bottom until the halving. So I actually put his prediction on my chart here so we could, look at it.
What he did was he saw that from the very bottom of Boom 1 until the halving was 77 bars. From the halving until the top was exactly also 77 bars. And oh, in the previous cycle, it was 53 and 53. And so bottom to halving, halving to top is, almost to the freaking day, the same. Which is pretty, pretty telling.
Obviously, history doesn't necessarily repeat, but here it is repeating like the last three freaking times. So his exact same thing here, we can now, we now kind of, I think we've called a bottom, at least for this. For this kind of bear market here at this point, we've called the bottom here. And to just extend that out, puts him in September, 2025 top.
And so that's his theory and that's his prediction as far as time. he does go into a little price prediction. Maybe we'll talk price predictions at the end of it there. But, so that's the kind of the classic timing of the cycle. The hardest thing about. Timing these cycles is patience.
It's like, everyone wants shit to go. And I just sent out an email today about like why I think meme coins have been mooning and pumping. Not only is because of the whole, you know, fuck the system narrative, but also because people are impatient and they want to trade. And, they want this bull market to be cranking, and it's just sorta not yet.
We haven't kind of transitioned into where ETH and alts start making their moves. Everyone's just waiting for Bitcoin to really break out here, which hasn't happened. So everyone's like, screw it. Let's just trade meme coins until, then. So that's what I think is going on now, and that's the classic cycle.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Theory Invalid?
Gerbz: So let's then let's break over now to some of your charts and what you're thinking as far as maybe the four year cycle is over. Because we broke out here. Actually, let's talk about this for a sec. So we didn't break out. We didn't break out of $69K, the previous high. We, set a new high, but this is far from a breakout.
So, this happened before the halving. We reached, what's the top here? $73K. Yeah, this is on BITSTAMP. I use that cause it just has the most historical price history. But yeah, so we set a new all time high, it is true. But did we break out? I don't think so. And so you think that this invalidates the four year cycle theory right here?
Jameson: I do. So first of all, back to what you were saying earlier. I mean, if you look at the chart, the Bitcoin bottom being like $15-16 K. I mean, people who are claiming like nothing's happened. I mean, Bitcoin's like 34x off those lows.
Gerbz: Yeah. This is a massive run.
Jameson: Yeah, you can't really, I mean, it's essentially been up only since 2023. Like, if you look at that chart, especially if you look at a monthly time frame. It's essentially been up only since 2023, so I think that a lot of people who are...
Gerbz: 375 percent move from this bear to our new little high here.
Jameson: Exactly. So if you positioned yourself at the right time, you're up 376 percent on your Bitcoin buys. Like, I think a lot of the people who are saying, you know, the bull market hasn't really started. Saying that, you know, the cycle is going to go late into 2025. I think a lot of them are either still sidelined, they either didn't buy with enough size as they would have liked to. They haven't made as much money as they wish they had, so they're kind of coping almost saying, "I think it's going higher." Meanwhile, if you look at the chart, it's up 380 percent off the lows. Like it's already gone like crazy high, like I don't think...
Gerbz: But that is common, right? let's look at the last cycle from the bottom to, to breaking the previous high. Like, that was 540 percent and the cycle hadn't even done like its final push yet.
Jameson: Yeah, and that's why I agree with that 100%. So let's go ahead and from the top of that line right there, at the top of that 543 percent on the left one, yeah. Can you draw another one to the top?
Gerbz: So yeah, another 250%.
Jameson: Yeah, so I, I think we could honestly see something very similar to that from here on Bitcoin. And I think, you know, we could top out. On another chart I have, it kind of shows this idea, but I mean, if you apply that same 250-ish percent move to right now, I think.
Gerbz: Yeah, so that puts us at $170K.
Jameson: Yeah, so that's honestly a little higher than what I'm, thinking we'll do. Then again, it definitely depends on how parabolic price action really goes. Like, what the blow off top looks like. But if you look at that, I think the more telling aspect would be measuring the timeframe from the top of that 543 percent to Boom 3 top, because I think that time aspect.
Gerbz: So this is from the time of, breaking the previous high until the top. That's 336 days. And so extending that out would be... yeah, that puts us here in a February 2025.
Jameson: Yeah, so I think that February 2025 is reasonable for a crazy blow off top, but I don't know. I really think that we've already seen a crazy like 4-5x off the lows on Bitcoin. Ethereum's had a similar move from, you know, sub one thousand dollars to four thousand dollars now.
I think we've already seen like a good amount of this bullish price action we're going to see this cycle. I don't think that we're just going to blast like, $300K plus long end of 2025.
Gerbz: So you're saying either like this summer, maybe we just go ham and blow off top early? Or maybe if it extends, if it's the exact same as the last cycle, maybe, February? Which is also still very accelerated compared to what...
Jameson: Most people are calling for. 100%.
Gerbz: Totally, let's jump into a couple of your charts here.
Jameson's Chart Analysis
Jameson: So this chart, I actually was inspired by, this whole thesis was kind of brought to light by me to someone I follow on Twitter, CredibleCrypto. Has some great insights, really respect his analysis. And he brought this point up initially, and this is kind of where I got this from.
You can see that historically throughout Bitcoin's inception since Genesis, it's always been a longer period of time from lows after all time high to new all time highs.
Gerbz: So this is showing, this is the Bitcoin price from the bottom to the top of each cycle. The orange is from what we call Genesis, like the Genesis block of Bitcoin. Then the start, or at least the Genesis of Bitcoin having price, and then to the top.
So orange is the very first cycle, red is the 2011 to 2015 cycle, and we can see how much further out the top happened in that second cycle. And then, 2015 to 2018 cycle is blue. This is like, this is Ethereum, this is ICO mania. This is the top of that cycle. And then green is this last boom three that we just had here, which had this weird rounded kind of double top thing.
But the timeframe was like spot on in a freakish way to the cycle before. All right. So, yeah, so that's what, that's the kind of the chart we're looking at here.
Jameson: Yeah. So thank you for highlighting all that. I think that the point you just brought up, 2015-2018 ICO mania cycle, being essentially the same cycle as quantitative easing, Fed printing, COVID cycle.
Historically, it makes no sense when you look at this chart for the cycles to be the exact same length essentially. There's no blow off top, all time highs made essentially the same time, 1050 days after prior low. Same as prior cycle. There was no blow off top. We just essentially, you know, ranged between this area of $69K to I don't even know what that low was.
$69K. Like, that, in my opinion, does not qualify as the cycle top. I think that is, you know, kind of what everyone is proposing as the cycle top. But if you go back to that chart, you can see historically there's never been a cycle where, like you said, the low to high was the same exact time as the previous cycle. Therefore, I don't think it makes sense for that proposed cycle top of $69K in whatever year that was, 2022.
I don't think that makes sense to call that the top personally. I think that goes against everything we've seen historically with Bitcoin's price action in terms of lows to highs. So that's kind of why I've been leaning on this idea of...
Gerbz: We're still in the cycle.
Jameson: Exactly. And even when you draw this little arrow you drew on that chart of, you know, it should go out into February. I think that's if we get a crazy blow off top it can go into February. But I just think this entire process has been sped up with you know, ETF filings, ETF approvals, crazy inflows...
Gerbz: Definitely has. It does. I mean, that's definitely contributed.
Jameson: A hundred percent.
Gerbz: Stuff is like, is big money. And you know, I'm sure you've heard this too, how all the talk from Wall Street guys about how long it's going to take for all of these investment funds and whatnot to ramp up their Bitcoin holdings.
Like, they're saying it's going to be another year before some of these, funds even can start to allocate, have gotten approval to start allocating. So they're saying this ETF stuff is just getting started and it's already hitting a new high because of it.
Jameson: I definitely think that's an interesting point. I think that I, mean, I agree that a lot of this ETF stuff is going to take a while to, you know, we're obviously seeing these large asset managers create ETFs and have, you know, inflows from people investing with them. But before it's in, you know, pension funds, just larger investment things like that, like you said, it's going to take multiple years. I think that Bitcoin price is going to have to stabilize a little more.
And, yeah, I mean, I think that all of that stuff has just contributed to this cycle kind of being sped up. I mean, you can't really, in my opinion, compare this cycle to previous cycles the exact same because there's so many more factors this cycle.
I mean, presidential election, of course, we've had elections in previous cycles, but this is a huge election, crypto's forefront of the election. It's a huge talking point. We also have ETFs. We have just so many different factors that. Cause this cycle to vary from other cycles, which is kind of why in addition to, you know, charts like this Glassnode, historical data, I just don't think it makes sense for that to be the cycle top.
Obviously, a lot of people propose that as the cycle top, but I mean, looking at the time frames, I don't think it makes sense for those cycles to be the exact same time. I think that this cycle is going to top around end of 2024, and it'll end up being a longer cycle that started back in 2018. Yeah, it's going to, like I said, again, I think it's going to top in 2024 because that chart we were on previously that showed, you know, proposed top of Bitcoin top in, February 2025.
I think, yeah, that could make sense. And like I said, it could go into 2025, depending on how crazy the blow off top and things are. But with all things considered, with the ETFs, presidential elections, I think even this gets sped up and accelerated and that we just go parabolic here, you know, towards the end of the year.
I think that, like I said, in the next, I think that by end of June, we're going to be well on our way on our next move, you know, $80K plus. Yeah, I think by the end of this month, the next.
I think by the end of this month, we will a hundred percent have broken out of this range. We've been in for the past two months. We'll be above $72K we'll have cleared those highs and we'll be in price discovery, moving up. By end of this month. I'm fairly confident in that.
Gerbz: I like it. The person you mentioned, who's calling for like a $44K that's right here around the 50 day moving average, or the 50 week moving average. And I think maybe part of that theory is that, yeah, maybe he doesn't think we're going to break out here.
I mean, you talk about this resistance as every time we touch it, it weakens. Another way of looking at it is that every time we touch it and we don't break through is makes it less likely to break through. And if we are going to extend out, let's call it to the end of this year just to break out and then another year to get to a top, then maybe we do have to retest some of these lower ranges before any of that can happen.
And, so maybe that's why he's calling for $44K here and I wouldn't be surprised. Like, it's the contrarian view to what you're saying, right? It's like, you're ready to rock, you're ready to break out and probably have a little top, like a blow off top kind of action here in this month, this summer.
And the opposite of that is, maybe we fucking dump here. And it makes everyone like, "Oh!" Like it, you know, everyone leaves crypto again. It's like winter 2.0 the same cycle. And then it does end up slowly chugging back. ETF flows are going to continue to chug along. In fact, they're going to love that dip. And then it does kind of, that could line up with the traditional cycle theory a little bit.
I mean the weirdest thing about the last cycle, obviously, was that we never did have a blow off top. A lot of people said that this first hump was actually was the real top. Some people measure it that way, and that this second hump was all that weird like FTX stuff going on.
Jameson: Yeah, I've heard.
Gerbz: Rehypothecation, and just like trying to just create exit liquidity before the actual bear kicked in. Lots of weird. Who knows, maybe it was all that.
But again, I do go back to just, "Wait a second. We have a halving, we do have supply shock. Do you not agree with kind of the supply shock theory with the halving? And that at some point here soon, all of the extra liquidity and Bitcoin that's been on the order books for, a couple, like over a year now, it's going to dry up and there's not going to be enough Bitcoin to go around. For especially these ETF flows, but even just retail once, you know, the news cycle kicks in and all that.
Jameson: Yeah, no, I definitely agree with that. But, you know, kind of just under the same belief that I think everything this cycle is essentially going to be sped up a little bit, I think that it's not even necessarily that I, you know, completely disagree with the idea of the four year cycle. There's definitely some valid thought behind that.
Gerbz: Something's going on here.
Jameson: Yeah, there's some reasoning I could get behind. The only reason I'm forced to invalidate that thesis myself is because of all time high before halving. But, I definitely agree with you. If you look at that, it makes sense. The supply shock theory makes sense.
So I definitely agree. There's going to be, you know, kind of a supply shock. And I think, like I said, I think ultimately everything, the cycle is kind of accelerated. So I think ultimately that supply shock is consequently going to come a little sooner. And that's ultimately going to kind of feed into this sped up cycle, the top sooner than most people think.
How Much Do External Factors Affect Price?
Gerbz: I want to throw out to you. You mentioned that you know, because of the election, because of these events, like these news, the ETFs. You know, I've been through, this is, I've been through every cycle. And, they all have their mega news thing. They all have these things that happen that are just like, you know, records of like, just ridiculous things that happened.
China bans Bitcoin, India bans Bitcoin. You know, like these things, it's just, it's out of control. It's almost hard to remember cause I've, I try to block them out of memory. How volatile some of these past cycles have been because of these news events. So yeah, like the election that's coming, it's going to be brutal.
The ETF flows like, oh man, anything could fricking happen there. What we've just seen with this like big flippening on the ETH ETF approval was so out of left field, and also very weird how little price action we had in response to it as well.
But yeah, so these, I just wanted to touch on these news events. If people are like, "Oh man," like these, there are some big things on deck. Yeah, but there's always some big things on deck. There's always big things happening in the world. So, I don't know if that necessarily means this cycle is going to be so different than others either.
Let's hop into another one of your charts here. Which one you want me to bring up?
Chart Analysis and Price Predictions
Jameson: Yeah, we can go and talk about this one then. So this kind of highlights the idea of...
Gerbz: What is this pattern?
Jameson: So this is basically, the five way move you're seeing here, is kind of the idea of Elliot Wave Theory. Which I haven't really ever paid too much attention to, although the person I mentioned previously, Credible Crypto, whose analysis I really respect, see it online quite often, they refer to Elliot Wave Theory quite often. And it essentially just refers to the idea that there's five wave impulsive moves, and they can be seen on lower time frames, higher time frames, like you're seeing here. But essentially they start on lower time frames, like one minute, five minute, and you can essentially see them and like, trade them, like breakout trading.
But essentially what you'll see, and I can show you on one of the charts when I share my screen later, is every move like that wave one you're seeing in 2018, 2019, that's made up of, there's smaller five wave moves within that. And it's essentially just the idea that all price action happens in these like impulsive moves and then corrective moves that follow.
And so when you kind of draw that five wave move out over this 2018 to 2025 cycle thesis that I have, you can kind of see the rough outline of that five wave move where you have, you know, that first impulsive wave, a second corrective wave, a third impulsive wave, fourth corrective wave, and then that fifth final wave leading you to your top.
Gerbz: Bullseye, yeah. This is in December 2024 you've got here, and it's somewhere around the $170K mark.
Jameson: Yeah, the number there is a little arbitrary.
Gerbz: These angles seem like they're, just a little arbitrary, but that's, this is the general area around here.
Jameson: Yeah. It's also, it might be a little different because the angles look a little weird. Cause I tried to just, leave that four above the actual lows. So you could kind of actually see it, but if it was dragged down below the COVID lows, like the other ones where it would be a little more clear and line up, but...
Gerbz: We're always looking for, once we have some analysis that we like, we're always looking for other analysis that kind of lines up with it. So I'm, that's sort of what you've got here is like, Oh, let's just connect the cycle tops or, and, see kind of where we end up and it seems like the same, zone.
So that's basically what you're saying here in this chart is that similar area, similar timeframe. And I do very similar things with my charts as well as kind of look, we want to hit it from all angles. And hey, if all of our angles kind of call the same time frame and the same price frame, then it's even more powerful.
Jameson: Exactly. The more confluence you have that supports your idea, your thesis, you know, the more comfortable you feel taking a position that backs that. And you just feel more comfortable in your position, so that's what's ultimately the most important.
Gerbz: Yeah, I've got something very similar I'll throw up here. So this is just connecting the bottom of Boom 1 and the bottom of Boom 2. Extending that all the way up. We obviously didn't hold this, this last cycle.
And actually I was very surprised that we didn't hold this as well. Obviously COVID broke this pretty hard. That was kind of like a flash crash moment. And then just this weird cycle, man, I was, and we really hung on tight. Even after we kind of held on to this support line here, but it just obviously didn't hold up.
But extending that out kind of brings around the, brings it to the timeframe that I was...or when you connect it with the timeframe that I've been looking at in my time analysis, it brings us to around $530K, $550K, which is also PlanB's stock-to-flow number.
So I just found that to be interesting, and it's just similar to what you had going on there too. It's like trying to hit your predictions from different angles, and that's my highest prediction. And I don't have a ton of price prediction stuff. And I honestly, I don't even put too much credit on some of these price predictions.
I kind of, I feel that, I feel the top. That's kind of how I play it. And it sounds like you're like me, you're going to be paying very close attention to all this every fricking day. And when that energy flows into the market and it's just constantly flowing, especially if we get into one of these blow off top kind of moments, that energy is just palpable. And what most people do when they feel that energy, they start texting me about should they buy.
Jameson: Yeah, exactly. and that's when you get out.
Gerbz: Yeah, that's when you get out.
I've got a post. I've got a post on BitLift, I call it the selling energy. And I named it the selling energy because I wanted it to remind myself that it's not buying energy. It's selling energy, it's time to start selling.
So when we start feeling that I'm gonna be basing my selling. If I'm, and whatever Bitcoin I have lined up to sell or whatever crypto I'm lining up to sell, I'm going to be doing it on touch and on feel. But hey, if it ends up being around here, more power to it.
I also know that historically, and this is easier said than done, we're going to have a lot of crashes, quote unquote, "crashes" along that journey too. It doesn't necessarily mean it's the top when we're down 25 percent, even 40 percent along the way. I think I did a video, recently where I, mapped out all of these crashes along boom too. And there was eight crashes that were around 30%.
Jameson: Yeah. I believe I saw that.
Gerbz: Yeah. So this is like, just because we have, we dump one day and then dump the next day. And then the next weekend, just when you thought it's bottoming out, it dumps again. Even that doesn't mean we topped out. So it gets really hairy.
Jameson: Exactly. I mean, you can even zoom into right here, this recent price action. When we dumped from. I believe $72-73K to the low...
Gerbz: Yeah, right here.
Jameson: $57K.
Gerbz: Yeah. That's a serious move.
Jameson: Exactly. I mean, I don't know exactly the percentage on that, but...
Gerbz: I do. It's 23%. Yeah, right there.
Jameson: Okay. Yeah. I mean, yeah, I know, I mean, ton of people, at least on my timeline I mean, they were super, super bearish. Like, cycles over, we just hit a double top. I mean, it's just those flush outs are completely normal along the way, and it's funny how quickly sentiment can change. Because like I said, I think we're going to be moving up here, advancing into the $80k range here in the next two weeks.
And I think that it's going to be interesting to see. Did people, they were complaining about a boring cycle, not making enough money, did they take advantage of buying that flush? Or are they still sidelined waiting and they're going to start complaining again as Bitcoin launches to $80K plus, and they're still sidelined.
Gerbz: Yeah. And I know it's, it feels crazy buying at what we think of as the all time high, right? But, even in the BitLift Discord, I've seen some of my buddies there, they're buying right now. Like this is the time to be buying.
This is, all of this last year, has been dollar cost average kind of strategy. Just buying when you've got some spare cash that you want to allocate. But now it's starting to kind of turn into playing it more like a trade versus just a dollar cost average. You kind of convert from dollar cost averaging to buying the dips. And if, with whatever you've got left, whatever firepower you've got left, you know most people are fully allocated at this point. So, it's hard to even have any firepower coming in.
Jameson: That's where I am. I'm fully allocated. I don't have any dry powder at the moment. I'm working an internship this summer, so I'll have a little more dry powder. Although at this point in the cycle, like I'm happy with my entries. I'm happy with my holdings, and I'm not really looking to you know, put any more money in.
In my opinion, this late in the cycle, like someone who is under the impression that we're going into 2025, I'm sure they could justify to themselves buying right now. But personally, I would have trouble buying more right now just because I believe we're close or late in the cycle. So, that's my personal opinion on like, I mean if you're buying bitcoin right now thinking you're going to sell, you know, after it goes up 10 or 20 more grand then I think that's definitely feasible.
Gerbz: Yeah, that's a pretty slim trade. Most people aren't trading that way.
Jameson: Exactly.
Gerbz: They're looking to save and 10x. I mean not that we're gonna 10x our Bitcoin necessarily here, but they're looking for multiples.
Jameson: Yeah, well, I mean, if they're holding on, you know, long term horizons, like 10 year horizons, then I think that's feasible. And I'd assume some people are doing that, but I think that people who are holding, buying right now, holding and waiting for, you know, $300-400K Bitcoin in 2025, I think they're going to be very, disappointed when, in my opinion, Bitcoin tops, you know, somewhere between $100K and $170K in 2024.
Gerbz: Yeah, right here. And so that would be a $170K would be like a 2.25x, basically. I did some analysis on previous cycles trying to predict, so we talked about like the decelerating time frames of the cycle. But I also was looking at the decelerating price and growth of each cycle. And so I just calculated the growth of the 2013 top to the 2018 top, which was like a 1500%, almost 1600% move.
And then this next cycle that we had was only a 250% move from that. And so if you carry that deceleration forward, it puts us at only beating the previous cycle top by 15%.
Jameson: Interesting.
Gerbz: Or, or 15% of that move. So 15% of the 250% move put us at $96K, which is, that's my lowest prediction that I've come up with, just playing around with stuff, the most conservative.
$100K Bitcoin
Gerbz: And I mean, we're definitely going to play with $100K. Who knows what's going to happen there. Whether we use it as resistance and never break through or whether we just test it and then realize that it's just a big round number that doesn't matter and smash through it, which is what I would assume is going to happen.
Jameson: That's actually a really interesting thing to talk about. You know, $100K Bitcoin. Obviously, it's something that we all want, and I think we'll get sooner than most expect. I would say we'll see $100K Bitcoin by September. But I think that, you know, it's going to be interesting to see. Because personally, like I said, I think that we, it's likely in my opinion we'll see $100K Bitcoin by December, just given the fact that I think everything's accelerated and we're going to break out here in the next two weeks.
And I think ultimately as a result of that you know, media is going to start covering Bitcoin so much more heavily. That's just such like, an attractive number to talk about. It's going to be, you know, easy for people to,
Gerbz: It's a big deal.
Jameson: Just such an attractive number. So I think that's really when we're going to see a ton of media coverage and consequently a ton of inflows. I think it's funny saying retail because ultimately I am retail, I'm like a college student investing in crypto.
But, I think that's when we're really going to see like heavy inflows from retail is after media is covering Bitcoin. Bitcoin $100K, Bitcoin $100K. Like, whatever. I think that's really when the retail heavy inflows come, blow off top comes, and like I said, because I think we're going to get $100K Bitcoin before most expect, likely September in my opinion, I think that as a result of that, heavy retail inflow and ultimately blow off top will come sooner than most expect. Probably like October, November. After $100K Bitcoin sometime around September.
So like I said, I think everything's just going to be sped up a little. $100K Bitcoin is coming sooner than most people think. As a result of that, retail and heavy inflows are coming sooner than most think. And as a result of that, alt season and blow off top come sooner than most think. And ultimately cycle and 2024. That's just my thoughts.
Gerbz: So your number, do you...and so let's, so we're talking topping out end of this year? It's June now, July, August, September, within the next three months. Definitely before the end of this year, you're calling the top?
Jameson: No, I don't think, I don't think top will be in within the next three months. I think Bitcoin will be at a $100K by September. but could easily go to, depending on what the blow off top is like, I think from $100K Bitcoin could go to $130K, even all the way up to $150K, $170K. But still, before the end of the year.
So if you want to go to that second chart I threw up, it kind of highlights. kind of shows that blue zone with essentially that same, like $120-ish to $170-ish, $180-ish-K area, kind of between September and December.
Gerbz: So you're not saying necessarily that's the end there either though. You're saying, you're just projecting this forward to this area. But after that, do you think we dump? Is it the end?
Jameson: I think that is the cycle top. Yes, I think that is going to be the end of the cycle that started back in 2018. I think that, like I said, I think Bitcoin hits $100K in September or by September, but I think it goes higher after that. I just think that Bitcoin will have its all time high by end of this year, and it will not trade higher than anytime in 2024 and 2025.
Gerbz: Alright, I like it. There it is. So you're calling the top by the end of this year. I'm still sticking with the classic, classic four year cycle. You know, breaking, if we do break out sooner, and I still don't think we've broken out. I feel like we have set this new little high, but it was really a test that failed as far as I'm concerned at this point.
If things go according to the way, you're, looking at them, then we're going to break out here and then it is a new paradigm. Like then we have broken out quote unquote, "ahead of schedule." And then maybe at that point, I think I was looking at a December breakout.
So that's like a six month acceleration, which maybe would lead to a six month acceleration of the top coming in as well. Which could put a top maybe halfway through 2025 instead of the end of it, as far as I would project out, or maybe like, it'd be like summer. Basically summer 2025.
That would be my, next reframing if it turns out that we break out here and get higher sooner. Whether we $530K man, that's a nice, nice big number. That would be, that would be wild. But you know, Bitcoin has done crazier things. We've seen, like we saw 1500 percent bull markets, that is not uncalled for.
And now with all this big money flowing in, these guys that they don't trade, right? They allocate. And it's going to be interesting to see them allocating into the, what we call the very end of the cycle. But they're going to be seeing it as, they're just setting their positions up for the first time.
Jameson: They're just getting in, exactly. Yeah, I agree. That is going to be very interesting, and I think that, you know, it'll be super interesting to see like kind of what effect these ETFs ultimately have on the market. I think that ultimately because like you said, they're looking to allocate rather than trade, I think it's going to have more of a stabilizing effect on the market.
The Last Cycle?
Jameson: I think that this cycle is one of the last ones. I mean, obviously, as long as human greed is a thing that we have, like there's going to be crazy returns available in some market, right? That's just inherent. But I think that, as we get more stabilization in crypto through ETFs, and I honestly think we'll get more legislation. Legislation coming regarding crypto, soon. I think that ultimately it's going to have more of a stabilizing effect on price. Yeah, so I think it'll be really interesting to see just kind of what comes as a result of that.
I want to see kind of what will happen, obviously, I'm calling for top by end of this year, sometime in 2024. And then, I mean, I would not be too surprised if we have some crazy blow off top just because of all the, you know, news, all the things we have going for us that maybe we do blow off a few months end of 2025.
But regardless, I'm kind of curious to see what are your thoughts on what comes after what the bear market looks like? How long the bear market is? How the ETFs affect that, just kind of what are your thoughts on that?
Gerbz: A lot of thoughts. The first that I can't help but think is kind of hilarious, is that I've been talking to people about their crypto journey for a decade now. And the thing, the, pattern that comes up every single time is their first time they ever buy crypto, they buy at the top of the cycle.
That's what everyone does, at least their first buy. And it's because that's when the media frenzy is at its peak. And so that, and that's what brings them in. They finally are like, they finally put that one hour of time and it takes to figure all this stuff out and they finally do it.
But they buy the top. So it was very funny to hear. And both of us kind of agreeing that. It might be the institutions buying the top of this one. So I, and I kinda love that.
Jameson: Yeah, right?
Gerbz: But what does that mean? Do we, so first of all, a blow off top, I was obviously expecting one last cycle, was very surprised to not have one.
That's what I've experienced in the first two cycles. And I was there for it, man. And it was, it's hard to go through. Like, these moves here are wild, right? This is a thousand dollars to $20,000 in a year. And these last couple of weeks here, this is $8,000 to $20,000 in three or four weeks. So it gets really crazy.
What we haven't seen again is what happened in 2013, which was like this stall out that really felt like we didn't even know about blow off tops yet, in this cycle. This was the first one ever or what we thought was going to be the first one ever.
Jameson: Yeah.
Gerbz: And then we stalled out and this, you know, on the chart, this looks like just kind of a natural growth, but this is a year long like rally. Like, this is a very long rally. And this second one here is a big six month, I mean, man. This is like, this blew my brain for sure. And then...
Jameson: Crazy to look at.
Gerbz: Yeah, and at the end of this though, this was the most bearish bear market of all time. This is, we got so bearish that, you know, all the Bitcoiners started fighting against each other and Bitcoin Cash split off. Like, that's how, brutal this bear market was. There was nothing to do. There was no such thing as Ethereum. I mean, there was, but no one knew about it yet. There was, the thought of ETFs or of NFTs and Web3, like the term Web3 hadn't even been spoken. So this bear market was long and brutal. So what I've felt this bear market, which has been interesting is just, there was a lot more hopium and a lot more like actual people tinkering around. Like, yeah, NFT investors like lost 90%, but they were still playing around with it in this. They're still building a lot.
There was lots of Web3 building going on and lots of new projects, kind of tinkering around. And that's something I did not see or experience in the previous cycles. So I think we've kind of finally gotten to that point where there's so much developer interest and so many projects being built, that is creating more activity through the bear market than we'd had in the past. And I would expect after this cycle, that will also be elevated, which is, there'll be even more developer activity, yeah.
Jameson: That's a good point.
What's the "NFT" of This Cycle?
Gerbz: But what we haven't seen yet, which is what one of the reasons I think your accelerated timeline is, too accelerated, is that we haven't even seen like the NFT of this cycle yet.
Like we haven't even seen the DeFi summer, maybe meme coin summer is the thing. But like, we haven't seen that new technology that comes and just brings in this whole new wave of people that we never even we're reaching before. We haven't seen that happen yet in this cycle.
Jameson: I feel like that historically happens kind of after the top, like even in 2021, like after the top in 2021, if you think about it, NFTs really went crazy during 2022 when liquidity flowed elsewhere from Bitcoin after it topped out. Because, you know, alt season...
Gerbz: I guess we could pull ETH up here. Cause when I'm talking, when we talk NFTs, we're talking ETH for the most part. Yeah, here's the ETH chart. And I mean, 2022 was brutal for ETH. This is Luna right here, and then FTX is over here.
Jameson: Yeah. So like Bored Apes, all these crazy collections that are going for like...I mean, Bored Apes were selling for like $400,000 for one NFT. That's all going on during 2022, while simultaneously ETH is shitting the bed. So, I mean, I think it really happens when, I mean, I agree with you 100%. We haven't seen that new, kind of, shiny new thing everyone wants to play with, invest in, whatever. But I really think that's going to come after the top, whenever liquidity flows elsewhere, i.e. alts, you know, NFTs, whatever the new thing is. I think that, really is going to come after the top is in.
Gerbz: Since I've got it here, this is a similar thing we did on the Bitcoin chart earlier, which was just measure the growth of the top of the 2018 to the top of, 2021, it was 205%. So extending that out to this cycle puts an Ethereum price at almost $10K. Barely almost touching $10K, which is I think a pretty...I think, the community, so to speak is in consensus around an $8,000 to $10,000 ETH this cycle. What do you think?
Jameson: I think, man, that would be awesome. Especially because most of my exposure to crypto is alts just because I am not buying with enough size for it to be worthwhile to be investing in, you know, Bitcoin. So, yeah, I mean, obviously I would love for ETH to go crazy like that. I haven't really spent too much time developing a price target or top necessarily for ETH. Just because I feel it's so dependent on Bitcoin, but...
Gerbz: It is. It follows Bitcoin around like a lost puppy.
Jameson: Exactly. Yeah, so I think, I mean, I don't know. It's really interesting, but I do think that, kind of like Bitcoin at $100k, ETH $10k has been that super attractive number that, you know, people are talking about, people are wondering will it ever get there.
I mean, I, think that's not too farfetched. I mean, here in just 2024 alone, ETH is up give or take two grand-ish. And historically, ETH goes crazy kind of alongside alts, whenever Bitcoin tops out and liquidity flows elsewhere from majors, mid caps, to low caps.
So again, I think that. it's definitely not unreasonable to be calling for $8-10K ETH. I think that's definitely something we could see. And I think again, it's gonna be largely dependent on how crazy BTC goes because a lot of that crazy upward price action on Ethereum is caused from liquidity flowing from Bitcoin.
So that'll be really interesting to see. I actually think, the ETH-BTC pair, I don't know how, do you pay attention to that often?
Gerbz: I do. And I've got it here.
ETH/BTC Dominance
Jameson: What are your thoughts on ETH-BTC?
Gerbz: I haven't formulated my own on them, but my buddy Brian, who I've had on the podcast...
Jameson: I saw that, I saw y'all's video recently, I remember speaking to him, at that blockchain meeting.
Gerbz: Exactly. Yeah. He follows this pretty closely and he's waiting for a reversal here of, what do we call this? Like a trend reversal, basically, ETH-BTC.
Jameson: Flip the trend, yeah.
Gerbz: This little boom here, this was strictly, this was ETH ETF announcement day. So whether that was like, maybe we can call bottom here, on ETH-BTC and that in his mind, this is sort of like the second wave of the cycle begins when ETH starts to trend upwards against Bitcoin.
so, describe the ETH-BTC chart for people, too. What is the ETH-BTC chart?
Jameson: Yeah, so ETH-BTC essentially just represents Ethereum's strength against Bitcoin. So essentially, anytime you from right here to, you know, Ethereum has been bleeding out against Bitcoin for the past, you know, two years, essentially. If you've been holding Ethereum instead of Bitcoin, you've basically just been losing money.
Not losing money per se, but you could have made more money holding...
Gerbz: Right, Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum.
Jameson: Exactly. Somewhere around here, I was like, yeah, I think ETH-BTC bottoms in. And I think, you know, we're going to continue higher from here. ETH's going to start to outperform. But after giving that some more thought, and like you said, this candle was largely just due to the ETF news.
So after giving it some more thought, I would not be too surprised, especially given the fact that I think Bitcoin is going to start advancing pretty heavily from here. I would not be too surprised if we see, you know, maybe this level down here gets front run. But I wouldn't be too surprised if there is another kind of move lower before we have another higher move on ETH-BTC.
And maybe that just ends up forming a longer bigger bullish divergence before we bottom out But I personally think that it is possible that the ETH-BTC bottom is not in, just given the fact that I think BTC is going to start advancing pretty quickly from here. I think that it's fairly likely to say that while Bitcoin makes its next parabolic move or impulsive move to the upside That it could suck some liquidity from the rest of the market consequently causing ETH-BTC to move even lower.
I know a lot of people are already calling for the ETH-BTC bottom to be in. So this would definitely throw a lot of people off guard while Bitcoin just continues higher. So, I'm not totally sure that's what's going to happen, I just thought that was something that was interesting and worth pointing out.
Gerbz: It is, and we always talk about how Ethereum follows Bitcoin, but when that happens and Ethereum kind of starts to steal some of the show from Bitcoin, it really does steal the show. And it's not just Ethereum. It's like, you know, the whole EVM ecosystem, all the whole dApp ecosystem, all the alts, everything just gets all the energy, flows from Bitcoin to there.
And, then somewhere in that nugget of time, man, some really fun, new, innovative tech or project or product comes out that kind of captures our imagination and makes us think you know, super cycle is in, crypto is here to stay forever, and we're never, ever gonna dump or have a bear market ever again. And, that's always a fun chapter as well.
Jameson: Yeah, no, most definitely. I do think that idea is pretty interesting about not necessarily no bear market ever again, but I do think that as, you know, price does stabilize more through ETF inflows, through legislation, through whatever it may be. That ultimately I do think that, you know, Bitcoin's price action on, you know, longer time frames is
More BTC Predictions
Jameson: probably going to end up looking a little bit more like the S&P 500. You know, it's going to be...
Gerbz: Up until the right, forever.
Jameson: Exactly. I think that, you know, as they're steady inflows, people are buying through ETFs, there's going to be less of this, like crazy 77% dumps. I think that it's going to be more just, I mean, obviously looking at it in the logarithmic chart, it already looks...
Gerbz: What a beautiful chart.
Jameson: I mean, if you look at, I mean, see like even looking at the monthly, I don't...
Gerbz: I never look at it, not in log view. It's so funny, whenever I see that, it shocks
Jameson: Exactly. Log is definitely how I always look at it, but I mean, I don't get how people can look at this monthly chart and be like, "Oh, the cycle's so boring. Like, we haven't done anything yet." Like, look at this since 2023, it's basically been up only this looks insane. Like, how?
Gerbz: Yeah, but hold on it. You're not, look at that 2017-18 cycle. It looks like a blip, and we haven't turned the 2020 cycle into a blip yet.
And then look at the 2013. We haven't turned that one into a blip yet. So that this is the thing, right? You're going to make, at some point this cycle that we're going into right now, is going to make that 2020 to 2022 cycle look like a blip on this chart.
Jameson: If we replicate that same move and, you know, kind of make this move a blip, right? If we take...
Gerbz: Let's make it a blip.
Jameson: The bottom to here. Like, that essentially lines up with the area of the top I'm calling for, you know, like that $120K-ish. And obviously that's a lot longer, that's the full year longer than what I'm expecting. So yeah, I'm honestly expecting something a little more like that.
Gerbz: It's getting there.
Jameson: Yeah, I mean. That kind of looks like this a little bit.
Gerbz: It does.
Jameson: And it kind of obviously COVID was a little different because of that. You could argue that without that we would have had something a little more like this.
Gerbz: I was just watching PlanB's latest YouTube video, and he actually talks about the double top of the last cycle. He says the reason is because of the China, mining, ban. I've kind of chocked it up to, FTX rehypothecating everything.
Jameson: Yeah, I, haven't really given that too much thought just because, I don't know, 2021 was the cycle I was first joining in, so I was kind of new to the whole space, still figuring everything out rather than developing top thesis. But just real quickly on lower time frames, I think things look super bullish right here, I mean, inverse head and shoulders...
Gerbz: Yeah. What are we looking at here? This is the daily?
Jameson: Daily Bitcoin, yeah. I have a bunch of random lines a lot of these you don't even need to pay attention to but you can kind of see a wedge right here broke out of that. And inverse head and shoulders, you know prices continuously...
Gerbz: Testing previous highs, yeah.
Jameson: Like, we're basically just consolidating under this level right here. And I mean, there's enough buying pressure to keep price up here, but there's not enough sell pressure. Bears don't have enough control to actually send us anywhere lower, meaningfully.
So I think that bulls are in control, there's enough buying pressure to keep us up here, and I think that eventually, sooner or later, that's going to result in a breakout. Like I said, I think it'll be in the next two weeks. A breakout that, I don't know exactly what it'll look like, but you know, maybe we even do come down here with some of this liquidity at like $64-65K and then move up again.
But I mean, that pretty much lines up with what I was saying. Within the next 2 weeks, we have that advance. You know, maybe we sweep a little liquidity to the downside first, even if it looks something like this, I think that's totally understandable. We would essentially be taking out all of these wicks and built up liquidity and then having a healthier move to the upside.
But I think it's totally reasonable to think that, you know, we're going to be moving higher from here within the next two weeks. I mean, this chart looks insanely bullish. We're consolidating, I mean this is new all time highs. So we're consolidating under all time highs, essentially at previous all time highs, which is this black line.
Inverse head and shoulders, like so many patterns that just look great. Yeah, I, think we're going to be breaking out here within the next week or two would not surprise me. So...
Memecoins: PEPE
Gerbz: I like it, all right. So I think we're all bullish here, whether it happens this year, next year, whether we're just averaging in or buying the dips. The cycle continues. The bull market, the bull is in for sure.
Jameson, I can't let you leave here without you pitching me on PEPE because I see you tweeting about it. You're pinning it. I just saw it, I saw it on your, on your list over here. So what's the elevator pitch on PEPE?
Jameson: Quick elevator pitch. All right. Yeah, basically my thesis on PEPE, I'll start by showing the chart. I first got in Uh, like you can't see the full price action on here is because it wasn't listed on TradingView on DEXtools, whatever.
Anyway, PEPE obviously had an insane, it was like 30 day run to a billion market cap, like 1300%. Completely natural growth. It happened in beginning of 2023 while Bitcoin's trading at like, $25K. I mean it kind of just spawned, and out of nowhere, went parabolic and then, you know, died off for...
Gerbz: the rest of the year.
Jameson: The better part of a year. Yeah, so...
Gerbz: And what, why, what captured the imagination? What is it about this? It's a meme coin, but like, what's the meme?
Jameson: Yeah, so my entire thesis on this is like DOGE, SHIB, FLOKI, Dog with Hat, POPCAT, whatever it is, there's maybe one funny picture of those memes that gets shared every once in a while. Like, half the people don't even know where that meme comes from.
PEPE, on the other hand, is the lifeblood of memes on the internet. Everyone recognizes the frog. Everyone recognizes PEPE the meme. Like if someone comes new to the space, like they're likely not going to be buying DOGE that's trading at 20 cents. They're gonna be looking at PEPE and they're like wow It has four leading zeros imagine if that goes to one dollar like the unit bias is...
Gerbz: We used to say that about DOGE all the time.
Jameson: Exactly, so the unit bias is favoring PEPE. In addition to that, it's an extremely attractive meme being that it's all over the internet.
This is my first tweet I sent out. I sent it out February 6th, beginning of this year. I said, "Massive inverse head and shoulders on PEPE. In hindsight, it will be obvious." I was heavily allocated by this point. Had high conviction, knew it's like the most popular meme on the internet.
Looking at how many leading zeros it has, there's obviously unit buys favoring it. People are gonna buy it who are new to the space thinking it could go to a dollar. They don't even know what market cap is. They don't even know that it's not even possible for PEPE to go to a dollar because of the market cap, but they're still going to think it's possible, so they're going to buy it.
So I had high conviction down here, knew that people are buying at these lows during a bear market. This is literally during the bear market. Anyone who's buying a new meme coin down here in the bear market obviously has high conviction is going to hold for a while.
So with that in mind, I was very high conviction called for an inverse head and shoulders ended up playing out pretty much perfectly more than an 800 percent move, which was absolutely insane.
Gerbz: Yeah, that's what I was going to ask. What's this, what was this moving? Was there a catalyst for it or it was just time?
Jameson: Not really. I think it was just time. Yeah. So there wasn't, I mean, from the bottom down here, we can measure. It was, without the wicks, 904 percent move. And then this candle itself was like a 332% and then this whole move with the wicks was like 618%. Just the candle bodies was like 500%. But that's a two week move and it's going like, 600 percent.
So I think it's still going. Yeah, I think that I did a better job of highlighting it right here I was basically, this is the PEPE weekly chart on May 20th compared to the DOGE weekly chart And It's basically just showing...
Gerbz: Similar pattern to a similar meme.
Jameson: Exactly, yeah. So I still think PEPE's gonna just continue to perform insanely well. As of June 3rd you know, PEPE just continues to outperform every other popular alt out there, and it's really not even close.
I've been tweeting out this same thing for, you know, basically the past two months. And every single one of these you look at, PEPE is the top performing alt. No matter how far you go back, all of these PEPE is the top performing alt by generally a large margin, and I think it's going to continue to be, it has the unit bias going forward in terms of price.
It has super strong community behind it. Everyone uses the meme, even if they don't own the PEPE coin, like they still use the meme and know what PEPE is. Like, people who are new to the space, like they've already seen PEPE before even knowing like, about crypto. You know what I mean?
Like it's something that, it's a popular meme outside of the crypto space. It's just a popular meme in general. So I think it has appeal to retail, it has a low unit bias, which favors people who are entering with a low amount of money, and I mean, the chart looks good if you look at it on...
Gerbz: We like the frog.
Jameson: Yeah, exactly. We like the frog. I mean, this just looks like an insanely healthy chart to me. Just higher highs, higher, like, this just looks really good. I think it's just gonna continue to be a top performing alt this cycle. I think that it's gonna be the DOGE of this cycle. I think it's gonna go parabolic. I think it's gonna continue to go crazy. And, yeah, I've been positioned in it for a while, so I'm gonna continue to hold and hope that my thesis is correct.
Gerbz: And if it's anything like previous cycles, the time to dump alts and memes and whatever is when it's time to dump ETH and everything else too. So it's hard. You don't really, you don't really do the same sort of timeframe analysis on alts, or even price target analysis. Especially for a meme, because who knows where it could be.
It's more like, you feel that energy. And when the energy starts flowing out of the majors, it's time to start flowing out of the alts, too.
All right, man. Well, I'm going to leave it there. I'm glad we got to cover a little PEPE too. I hope we see, hey, you know, I don't believe it, but I hope we see a breakout sooner than later. Like, I'm not against that, no way. It just means we get to the moon sooner, and I think it's, if that's a healthy thing to see.
And especially with the traditional markets being, just keep being so bullish and so weird, who knows when that steam is going to run out. So I'd rather see us get to this cycle top before that one finds its cycle top because that's going to definitely impact crypto markets as well.
So yeah, let's run it up, man. I like it. if people want to follow some of your, find your next PEPE and see some of these charts you've been tweeting out, where can they find you?
Jameson: Just on Twitter, @JamesonEth.
Gerbz: Rock on, man. Cool. This was fun chatting and maybe we'll do it again. Especially if your early cycle breakout theory comes true. We'll revisit and see what's next.
Jameson: Sounds good. Yeah, let's keep in touch and see what happens these next few weeks.
Gerbz: Sounds good, man, and I'll see you in Colorado at some point.
Jameson: All right. Sounds good. Take care.