December 31st 2024
This year I put out a lot of content on BitLift and did all I could to prepare y’all for the inevitable bull run. 2025 is the year of the second up arrow and now that it’s here, I realize I’ve had less to say.
Hodling and trying to time the top is difficult enough as it is without also chasing every shiny new crypto thing that comes our way.
Last cycle I accomplished my goal of setting up a stablecoin farming operation designed to generate passive income for life. I spent all my time and energy on it only to watch it go down in a ball of flames. I’m not making that mistake again.
This cycle I have different goals, goals which won’t require me to be knee deep in DeFi yield farming strategies. As of today, my portfolio is 74% BTC, 19% ETH, 5.5% “other” and 1.5% USDC. Those “others” are made up of 7 altcoin positions: XMR, AVAX, FXS, UNI, FTM, TON & TAO
While they’re ALL up, I’m not attached to any of these alts. My ultimate goal this cycle is to accomplish my monetary goals without selling any BTC - only alts and as much ETH as necessary. That would be a huge win.
Here’s where my head is at with regards to Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, Web3, DAOs, Memes, NFTs and AI.
Bitcoin
BTC is truly fulfilling it’s destiny as a global, permissionless, non-sovereign money. The ETF’s pushed BTC back to all time highs and Saylor single handedly carried us over $100k, but this is a result of, not the driving force, behind Bitcoin’s growth. In a world where nothing can be trusted, a money built on trust no longer functions. Bitcoin is the best alternative we have for replacing one of the most important tools in human history - money. We were fortunate enough to get a decade head start, but Nation state adoption is Bitcoin’s final chapter and it’s just starting. I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC decoupled from the rest of “crypto” (if it hasn’t already) as it truly is in a league of it’s own.
At this stage in the cycle, I’m done dollar cost averaging into more BTC - we’ve had 3 years to do that. Now I’m planning, watching PlanB’s monthly updates, keeping an eye on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, chasing altcoins and short term narratives and mostly just waiting till ~Q4 2025.
While I’m confident in my timing, predicting the price at the top is a different game. I’ve always been a fan of Stock-to-flow model. It way undershot Boom1 and Boom2, hit the nail on the head of Boom3 and calls for $583k in Boom4. I’d be cool with $250k.
Ethereum
Where Bitcoin brings truth to money Ethereum is trying to bring truth to everything else: the financial industry, real world assets, art, social media, identity… the list goes on.
From an investment perspective that sounds exciting, but a few things have become clear.
- The scale needed to pull this off is massive, so big that it fragments the network
- If you need to fragment the network, why not just invest in smaller networks designed and optimized for those use cases
- Handing fee collection and ownership over the users off to L2’s may be a solution for scaling the network but it’s not in the best interest of ETH investors
- Full turing-complete programability opens the door for hacks and scams which dissolves trust, thus hurting the core value proposition
The past two cycles attracted ALL the early adopter technologists on earth to crypto - and we’ve all been burned and burned out. If you need to trust the teams building on Ethereum in order to use there apps then what’s the point? Maybe AI can solve this.
So am I bearish Ethereum? Yeah. But am I selling now? No.
Ethereum will unlock it’s new purpose and have it’s bull run this cycle along with everything else, but for me, as a hodler since $15/eth, I’m willing to sell 75% of my ETH this cycle if it means accomplishing my goals. Somewhere around $8k/eth the network becomes worth $1T. Seems like a good target considering it typically lags BTC by one cycle and BTC topped out around $1T in 2021.
DeFi
2024 was a hard year for DeFi, yet in my eyes, Decentralized Finance remains the biggest opportunity of all the crypto niches. Builders have been afraid to build out of fear of being targeted and thrown in a cage by Fincen & The SEC. Hopefully that all changes in 2025.
Tokenization of real world assets (including stablecoins) and institutions will bring $Trillions into the space and I think the biggest DeFi apps, the ones who have survived multiple cycles, will benefit most. Apps like AAVE, COMP, CRV and UNI. And I’m rooting for FXS to get the attention it deserves.
Speaking of Uniswap, swapping sucks. We want limit orders and stop losses, predictable outputs from our trades and none of this MEV bullshit. Hyperliquid has shown us that we can have decentralized trading experiences that mimic the centralized exchanges we’re use to. Now, they’re transitioning to an L1 and tokens and apps are launching there exclusively. I’m keeping a close eye on the $HYPE ecosystem as well as the token going into next year.
So if I’m bullish DeFi, bullish Bitcoin and bearish Ethereum, then shouldn’t DeFi on BTC be the sweet spot!? I don’t think so. Bitcoiners aren’t willing to risk their BTC. There are tons of BTCfi chains (Stacks, Bob, Hemi) out there and no one is using any of them.
Web3
While I’d love to see decentralized web storage proliferate and identity brought onchain, the sparks are just not igniting outside of the cryptoverse. For that, I think we’d need adoption from the large social media companies - and they’re disincentives to do so (except $TON maybe). Farcaster doesn’t feel like something new and I sat here for 5 minutes trying to remember the name of Lens which both had their 15 minutes of fame.
DAO’s, Memes & NFTs
If there’s one thing we’ve learned about crypto over the past few cycles, it’s that community is king. If you want to be in the center of the action, just find the largest/most active community. Last cycle communities DAO-ified themselves and attached art and collectibles to their toolset. While some incredible communities blossomed (like Nouns), most fizzled out. This cycle, so far, they’ve dropped their DAO responsibilities and jpegs for simple meme tokens and telegram channels. While the art will live onchain forever, I’m not sure we’ll ever see the shared excitement the way we did in 2021.
Crypto x AI
I was late to NFT’s. I thought they were stupid. And then I finally used them. Collected them. And wow - collecting NFTs was SO much fun. I totally understand the draw. I still never “invested” or “traded” them. And glad I didn’t…
At the moment, all this AI Agent stuff seems pretty stupid. Luna is an anime “entertainer”. aixbt is a crypto influencer. ai16z is a hedge fund. Platforms for launching AI Agents like Virtuals seems like a sweet spot for investment, but I’m not even sold on AI in general, let alone Crypto x AI if I’m being totally honest.
It’s hard to understand what’s going on on the edge unless unless you dive in and try for yourself. In 2025, I imagine I’ll be tinkering with Crypto x AI Agents a lot more. Just for fun while we wait for this bull market to unfold.
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift