March 5th 2021
I'm constantly reviewing the previous Bitcoin bull markets to gain perspective on what could happen next. Big round numbers keep jumping out at me.
It appears we move in multiples of the previous top. Last cycle the top was ~$1k and every $1k we gained was a battle. This cycle the previous top was $20k, and so far we've stalled out at $40k and $60k (see my chart).
Gurus apply fundamental analysis to estimate price, for example, "Bitcoin is set to disrupt the $5T financial gold market this cycle so Bitcoin at a $5T market cap would be $217k".
Analysis like that helps gauge Bitcoin's "true value", but in the short term it's behavioral economics that gets us there. In practice, it looks like emotionally charged booms, busts and doublings bouncing off big round obvious numbers.
It's the numbers you read in headlines, the memes and the numbers you share with friends that matter here. BITCOIN HITS $50k! Laser eyes until $100k! Bitcoin reaches a quarter of $1 million!
The 2017 bull run could be summed up as:
- Price broke above $1k kicking off the new bull run
- Then it ran to $3k before cooling off
- Then $5k before cooling off
- Then $8k before cooling off
- Then in the final manic push, it smashed through $10k without flinching before bouncing off $20k for a new all time high!
We're seeing the same thing happen this time:
- Price broke above $20k kicking off the new bull run
- Then it ran to $40k before cooling off
- Then $60k before cooling off
- Then maybe... $100k before cooling off
- Then maybe... in a final manic push, it smashes through $200k without flinching before bouncing off $250k for a new all time high!
At each new round number we sort of try it on to see how it fits, feel how it feels. Today, buying above $50k doesn't feel right. A month from now anything under $100k might be a steal!
There were three major draw downs in the 2017 bull run and we're already experiencing the second. Things feel very similar to last time albeit a bit accelerated. Maybe we top out in the Summer instead of the Fall? I'm looking out for that feeling and keeping my eye on the big round numbers.
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift
Big Round Numbers Chart
Always a good idea to revisit your long term charts. Here's one plotting the big round numbers we talked about.
Tweet of the Week
NFTs are all the rage right now. And yes, in their current form they're literally multi-million dollar animated gifs. We won't get into it here, but there's certainly something interesting happening in the NFT space, just no one can clearly articulate it yet. Hence this tweet which made me LOL. Udi's just trolling, there's no thread.