August 11th 2024
You know that hopeless/anxious feeling in the pit of your stomach when prices plummet? The one that makes you question everything:
How could this happen!? What else am I wrong about!? Is this just the beginning? What should I do? What can I do!? I must understand the reason for this!
In reality, there’s nothing you could have done differently. And the reason (probably) doesn’t matter.
And the reverse is also true.
That euphoric feeling you get when price BOOMS fills you with confidence:
I called it. I should have bought more! It’s going to last even longer and go even higher than I thought! I should tweet about this.
This week we got to experience both emotions within a few days.
$60k → $49k → $62k = Emotionally drained.
We haven’t experienced such a sharp V shaped whip saw in Fear/Greed all year.
Some people say they ignore the price. I think that’s foolish. How are you going to execute your plan when the time comes? 👀
I let the feelings fill me up, but I’ve learned over time to recognize the feelings and “re-classify” them.
Instead of FEAR, its opportunity - to buy the dip and lower your cost basis (which I was SO proud to see members of The BitLift Discord doing in our #trade-log channel). It’s also an opportunity to lock in some losses to offset your future gains.
I call GREED “the selling feeling” as a reminder to myself that when the top comes, this is what it’s gunna feel like.
Typically you don’t get to feel both those feels in one week. Yet here we are. Probably a sign of things to come.
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift
The BitLift Podcast
What’s my process for evaluating new crypto investments? After 10 years of going down crypto rabbit holes, I finally formalized my process, recorded it as an episode of the pod and created a FREE checklist you guys can use when researching new blockchains/dApps/tokens for investment.
“The Cycle” Update
This red circles on the chart below show where I think we’re at in The Cycle. Yes, they’re off in relation to The Halving, which I think was related to the timing of the BTC ETF launch.
In 2019 we attempted to break the previous cycle high way too soon, failed, chopped around, COVID! and then broke out 8 months later.
In 2024 we did TECHNICALLY set a new All Time High caused by the ETF, but clearly we didn’t “break out”. Now, we’re chopping around a little bit waiting for our COVID moment. FML. What does that mean? MASSIVE Fear, Greed, Volatility & FOMO paired with money printing.
I’ll repeat my prediction until it’s proven right or wrong. Breakout into clear skies Q4 of this year, cycle top Q4 2025.
Crypto Podcast Snips
I listen to a ton of crypto podcasts and started bookmarking important moments using Snipd to share with you guys on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.
Mike Novogratz: “ Success is knowing when to sell”
Mike Novogratz: “ Bitcoin is a Finished Product”
Mike Novogratz: “ How to Invest in your 20s?”
Keep Up With Crypto
What I’m reading, watching, sharing and keeping an eye on in crypto recently.
From the BitLift Discord:
@GERBZ: Been poking around Compound lately. Props to x.com/CryptoKoryo for this simple breakdown:
- Compound V3 was released in August 2022. We can say it's the product of the lessons from the bear market.
- It aims to eliminate systemic risk by moving away from a pooled-risk model, where users can borrow any asset. The idea is somehow similar to Silo Finance. The fundamental thesis is that lending protocols are as safe as the weakest asset supported in the collateral pool.
- V3 implements a single borrowable asset. When you supply collateral, it remains your property. It can never be withdrawn by other users.
- This approach increases security as well as collateral ratios on all assets.
Few particular points in V3:
- You cannot be both a lender and a borrower to a single Compound v3 market. If you supply USDC to earn yield, you can't borrow USDC. Pick your side!
- The yield is only received in the base asset. For now, on Polygon and Arbitrum the only base asset is USDC. On Ethereum, ETH and USDC could both be used as base assets.
- Unlike V2, there is no exchange rate increase. The exchange rate is always 1. Instead, the base asset regularly earns accrual (interest) based on the current supply rate.
- Collateral assets that are supplied do not earn interest. But you will be able to borrow more, with less risk of liquidation. So to receive yield, you need to supply the base asset (excluding $COMP rewards)
- V3 no longer ties supply and borrow rates together.
@GERBZ: Good tool for viewing yield strategies across defi protocols
@guero7759: Final crash before 🍌 zone?
@GERBZ: Apparently not
@guero7759: Raoul remains bullish as always
@GERBZ: Oh no... Please don't.
@GERBZ: Innovations brewing in NFT land
@igelthewolfie: 👀