September 15th 2024
I’ve been lucky enough to discover and invest in multiple 10-100X opportunities every cycle since 2013. And last cycle, I was unlucky enough to watch my biggest win crash to 0.
Last week, I dug through my journal and re-listened to a few podcasts I recorded from 2021 to understand where I went right:
- I had a goal - My goal was to create a stablecoin farming bucket large enough to earn me passive income for life.
- I had a plan - I knew what percentage of my BTC I was going to sell, and how much at what prices to accomplish my goal. And I knew what percentage of my portfolio I was willing to risk on new high risk/high reward opportunities.
- I had a thesis - That stablecoin market caps will skyrocket and investors will look to put those stablecoins to work.
- I was plugged in - I was on Crypto Twitter every day. Discovering new projects. Gauging sentiment. Learning. Asking questions. Shit posting.
- I used lots of projects - We don’t just stack crypto, we USE it. If all you’re doing is reading about a project, you’re only getting half the story.
- I placed a few bets - On projects I thought were best positioned to capitalize on my thesis: CRV, NEXO, YEARN, LUNA
- I consolidated my bets - The more I used and learned about Terra, the more I realized LUNA was the biggest opportunity. So I dumped the rest and went all in. If you want a mega barbell outcome, avoid diversification, follow your gut and go big.
And of course, a few insights and lessons on where I went wrong:
- I didn’t come up with my altcoin investment thesis until March of 2021, ten months after the halving! This wasn’t a mistake, but an insight!
- I bought LUNA in May 2021, A FULL YEAR after the halving. This coming cycle, that would be the same as buying in April of next year (2025).
- By the time I bought LUNA, I’d actually already accomplished my goal. I’d sold a bunch of BTC and had a stablecoin farm running. I didn’t have a new goal… I was back to the typical “make as much money as possible” goal which never works.
- I did’t have a goal, but I DID have a plan… I was going to sell half of my LUNA exactly 1 year after buying it in order to avoid short term capital gains. I had “SELL HALF MY LUNA!” marked on my calendar. LUNA crashed 12 days before that.
So what am I doing differently this time?
- Slow down - Almost every position I’ve put on this year has been a fail. It’s just too early. Doesn’t meant I won’t continue tinkering and staying on top of narratives. Just no rush to put on big bets.
- Backup plan - What if I accomplish my goal? Maybe I’ll have some “nice to have” goals in my back pocket just incase. It would have helped me sell much sooner.
- Don’t get high on my own supply - LUNA collateral became a big component of my stablecoin farming strategy. To generate income I’ll do one thing, for exponential growth I’ll do another.
- Don’t let the tail wag the dog - Every time I’ve ever worked tax strategy into my investment strategy it’s ended in failure. Doesn’t mean I won’t consider it, but I’m giving it a lot less weight.
Last cycle was Terra-fying. This time we’ll do better.
What did you do right/wrong last cycle? What are you doing differently this cycle?
To the moon 🚀 — @GΞR฿Z Founder & Creator @ BitLift
“The Cycle” Update
Last week was all doom and gloom. This week is back up! Feels that way right? Well when you look at the monthly chart, nothing has happened at all. Just chopping around waiting for the election and money printing to begin. Are you studying The Cycle? Are you seeing the pattern?
Crypto Podcast Snips
I listen to a ton of crypto podcasts and started bookmarking important moments using Snipd to share with you guys on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.
Joe Rogan: “I hate Gold”
Mark Moss: “You Should Never Sell Your Bitcoin for Dollars”
Raoul Pal: “The Everything Code will Change your Perspective”
Keep Up With Crypto
What I’m reading, watching, sharing and keeping an eye on in crypto recently.
From the BitLift Discord:
@428580: oh, don't think we are mid cycle?? 6 months after halvening... I guess we have 6 to 12 month remaining. I'm thinking it will be at the shorter end of that time scale as we had a ATH pre halvening.
@GERBZ:
2017 breakout to top was 294 days 2021 breakout to top was 329 days
I don't think the pre-halving pokes above $69k mean the cycle will be shorter than previous cycles. Everything is still on track for a Q4 breakout. The ETF action was unrelated to the cycle IMO.
We're basically mid cycle, but when we smash through $69k, retest it, and never look back. In my mind, that's the halfway point.
@badjanitor: 100% agree. This chart really helped put it into perspective for me. The early ATH in March really isn't that far off the trend in the grand scheme of the cycle.
@GERBZ: Crazy story of how someone snagged a $1M+ cryptopunk for 10 ETH
And now he has an offer for 600 ETH 🤩
@badjanitor:
“TL;DR: Starting today, Coinbase is rolling out cbBTC – Coinbase Wrapped BTC – an ERC20 token that is backed 1:1 by Bitcoin (BTC) held by Coinbase. At launch, cbBTC will be supported on Base and Ethereum, with plans to support more chains. With cbBTC, we continue to increase economic freedom by giving users more ways to use their Bitcoin.”
“When Coinbase users send their BTC from Coinbase to an address on Base or Ethereum, that BTC will automatically be converted 1:1 to cbBTC. When users receive cbBTC in their Coinbase accounts, it will be converted 1:1 from cbBTC to BTC. Notably, cbBTC will not have a separate order book or trading pair on Coinbase.”
@p4rtyw4ve:
