July 14th 2024
One potential narrative for the next cycle I canāt seem to shake is āWeb3 Socialā. For two different reasons:
- Product: Decentralized media/identity/social networks would be great for humanity
- Investment: A large social network with crypto n at itās core could be a viral phenomenon, hence an epic investment opportunity
Iāve been playing around with Web3 Social networks like: Lens, Farcaster, Nostr, Deso, etc. for months. And while theyāre fun to use, I donāt see any of them becoming the next big social network. Network effects of existing social apps are just too strong.
But one project keeps popping up in conversation. And recently, I saw a prominent crypto fund made their largest investment ever in The Open Network - Telegramās blockchain.
I hate Telegram. I always have. Which is why I ignored their attempt at launching a coin back in 2020. And snickered when it was shut down by the SEC a few months later. But Iāve learned as I get older that that visceral reaction to a product is actually a signal that thereās something thereā¦
I could go on about why that is, but suffice to say that today I fought the urge to hate Telegram, spent 4 hours going down the TON rabbit hole, and aped in like George Soros.
This is not an endorsement of TON, and you need to do your own research. Iāve spent 1 day on this, plan to spend more, and could change my mind and dump it all without warning.
But if youāre interested in what my initial research session looks like on a new project, I shared my TON research here and will probably turn it into a podcast next week:
TON ResearchTo the moon š ā @GĪRąøæZ Founder & Creator @ BitLift
āThe Cycleā Update
Iāve been repeating for almost a year now that I donāt expect Bitcoin to break into uncharted territory until Q4 of this year, and then the cycle top to be in Q3/Q4 2025.
It appears weāve formed a bit of a bearish double top formation on the charts here. Technically, the book says we could dump into the $43k range, but it might not happen with institutions buying these dips using the ETF.
Even if we dump further, still leaves plenty of time to hit a year end breakout. Patience is hard. Patience is key.
Crypto Podcast Snips
I listen to a ton of crypto podcasts and started bookmarking important moments using Snipd to share with you guys on Instagram,Ā TikTok andĀ YouTube.
Mark Moss: ā How to Inflate away your Debt?ā
Jack Mallers: ā What are Capital Gains?ā
Jack Mallers: ā Iām Done Funding Warsā
Keep Up With Crypto
What Iām reading, watching, sharing and keeping an eye on in crypto recently.
From the BitLift Discord:
@superfly___: Looking to put my ETH to work. Should I solo stake? Been reading a bunch about re-staking being the newest thing. Thoughts on going that route?
@GERBZ: If you don't want to be tempted to put your ETH at risk, then I'd solo stake. Or at least partially solo stake. That's what I do, half solo stake half in DeFi. Restaking... very unproven. IMO, could lead to whatever implosion we experience next cycle. There's a great quiz at the bottom of this page to help you decide the best path to take
@superfly___: Thx! Ive been holding Eth for years, just always been too lazy to get my node setup šµāš«š looking above sounds like you prefer the Allnodes hosted service?
@GERBZ: Yeah, only cause I don't trust myself to run hardware properly. AllNodes has been excellent for me going on a year+ now. Make sure to pay the $10/m option so you get MEV ~ that's where the money is (if you're lucky enough to propose a block).
@GERBZ: Been seeing multiple projects getting the SEC green light
@GERBZ: Web3 Google Docs alternative. NFT/Token document gating, ENS names, IPFS storage, the works.
@GERBZ: Despite its name, SuperFest is not an IRL festival. Rather, it is an onchain celebration ā a celebration of the builders across the Superchain building DeFi applications and delivering value back to the Optimism Collective.
To showcase to users all the developments happening across these chains, this summer the Optimism Collective will allocate 1.5M OP rewards to spur exploration and activity across OP Mainnet, Base, Mode, and Fraxtal.
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@GERBZ: Raoul Pal's Solana price predictions